Mobile Augmented Reality.

Overview

This report provides the most detailed analysis of the market opportunities for augmented reality on the mobile to date.  The report is broken down into three chapters of market analysis and three chapters of forecasts. The  analytical chapters consider the initial service deployments, market opportunities and barriers to adoption; the forecasting chapters respectively look at point of sale revenues (split by usage, number of downloads per annum, cost per download, proportion of apps paid for, and total download revenues) incremental revenues (including subscriptions, licences upsold content) and advertising revenues.

Each forecasting chapter is split by the following augmented reality categories: location based search; mobile games; multimedia & entertainment; lifestyle & healthcare; education & reference; social networking; and, enterprise.

The report analyses a number of key application deployments identifying opportunities within each of the categories.  It investigates a variety of business models looking at how licencing and subscription revenues are likely to develop over the forecast period.  

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. The Development of Mobile Augmented Reality

1.1 What is Augmented Reality?
1.2 Augmented Reality via the Mobile
1.2.1 How it Works
1.2.2 Enabling Technologies
i. QR Code
Figure 1.1: Two-Dimensional Barcode (QR Code)
ii. Image Recognition
a. Facial Recognition
iii. Markerless Tracking
1.3 Key Drivers for Mobile AR
1.3.1 The Launch of the iPhone and the App Store
i. Market Prior to mid 2008
ii. 3G iPhone Launches
iii. The Impact of the App Store
1.3.2 The Launch of Android
1.3.3 The Development of Location-Based Services
1.3.4 Mobile Internet Adoption is Increasing
1.3.5 Technological Advances - Networks
1.3.6 Data Charges Are Being Reduced

2. The Opportunity for Augmented Reality on the Mobile

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Key Areas for AR App Deployment
2.2.1 Location-Based Search
i. Definition
ii. AR Opportunity
iii. Case Study: Layar
iv. Case Study: Wikitude AR Travel App
Figure 2.1: Wikitude Screen Shot
v. Case Study: Nearest Tube
Figure 2.2: Nearest Tube Screenshot
2.2.2 Social Networking
i. Definition
ii. AR Opportunity
iii. Case Study: Augmented ID from The Astonishing Tribe
Figure 2.3: Augmented ID Screenshot
2.2.3   Games
i. Definition
ii. AR Opportunity
iii. Case Study: ARHrrr!
Figure 2.4: ARHrrr! Screenshot
iv. Case Study: Mosquitoes
Figure 2.5: Mosquitoes Screenshot
2.2.4 Lifestyle & Healthcare
i. Definition
ii. AR Opportunity
2.2.5 Education & Reference
i. Definition
ii. AR Opportunity
2.2.6 Multimedia & Entertainment
i. Definition
ii. AR Opportunity
iii. Case Study: Heartbreak Welfare
2.2.7 Enterprise Solutions
i. Definition
ii. AR Opportunity
2.3 Monetising Augmented Reality
2.3.1 Pay-Per Download
2.3.2 Freemium: AR Lite
2.3.3 Free to Download/Ad-funded
i. Advertising on the Mobile
Table 2.1: Key Drivers of Advertising in Mobile
ii. Augmented Reality and Advertising
a. Apps in Advertising - Case Study: Carling Lager
Figure 2.6: The Carling iPint
2.3.4 Preinstalled AR apps
2.4 The Industry Response to Augmented Reality
2.4.1 Vendors/OS Providers
i. Case Study: Nokia
Figure 2.7: Still Images from MARA Video
ii. Case Study: Apple and Yelp!
Figure 2.8: Yelp iPhone 3GS Easter Egg Screenshots
2.4.2 Operators
Figure 2.9: Intuitive Search and Navigation Screenshot
2.5 The Market for Mobile Augmented Reality Services and Products
Figure 2.10: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2009-2014
Table 2.2: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2009-2014
Figure 2.11: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 3 Revenue Streams 2009-2014
Table 2.3: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 3 Revenue Streams 2009-2014
Figure 2.12: Mobile AR Revenue Streams ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2014
Table 2.4: Mobile AR Revenue Streams ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2014

3. Barriers to AR Deployment and Adoption

3.1 Public Awareness
3.2 User Interface
3.3 Addressable Market
3.4 Visibility/Reach
3.5 GPS Limitations
3.6 Safety
3.6.1 Privacy, Libel & Obscenity
i. Privacy
a. Case Study: Google Street View
ii. Copyright
iii. Libel/Obscenity Laws

4. The Market for AR Downloads - POS

4.1 Relative Popularity of Mobile Applications
Figure 4.1: Most Popular Categories of Applications on App Store, by Number of Titles, November 2009 (117,372 titles)
Table 4.1: Percentage of Handango Downloads Attributable to Games, by OS, 2005-2008
4.1.1 Implications for AR Apps
4.2 Methodology
Figure 4.2: Bottom-Up Methodology for Derivation of AR Point-of-Sale/Download Revenues
4.3 AR-enabled Handsets Subscriber Forecast
4.3.1 Global Mobile Subscriber Forecasts
Figure 4.3: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008 - 2014
Table 4.2: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008 - 2014
4.3.2 AR Handset Forecasts
Table 4.3: Percentage of Handsets Equipped with AR Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Figure 4.4: Handsets with AR Capabilities (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Table 4.4: Handsets with AR Capabilities (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
4.4 Mobile AR Service Users and Usage
Table 4.5: Percentage of AR Handset Users Who Use AR Apps and Services Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
Figure 4.5: Number of AR Handset Users Who Use AR Apps and Services (m) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
Table 4.6:  Number of AR Handset Users Who Use AR Apps and Services (m) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
4.5 The Point-of-Sale Market for AR Services and Applications
Figure 4.6: Average Number of AR App Downloads per User per Year Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
Table 4.7: Average Number of AR App Downloads per User per Year Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
Figure 4.7: Total Number of AR App Downloads Per Year Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
Table 4.8: Total Number of AR App Downloads Per Year (m) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
4.5.1 Retail Revenues of AR Applications
Table 4.9: Percentage of App Downloads which are Paid for Onstore Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
Figure 4.8: Number of AR App Downloads which are Paid for (m) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
Table 4.10: Number of AR App Downloads which are Paid for (m) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
Table 4.11: Mobile AR Apps, Price per Download ($) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014
Figure 4.9: Mobile Apps, Retail Value ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2009-2014
Table 4.12: Mobile AR Apps, Retail Value, ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

5. The Market for Mobile AR App - Incremental Revenues

5.1 Subscriptions, Licences and Value-Added Content
5.2 Methodology
Figure 5.1: Bottom Up Methodology for Derivation of Incremental AR App Revenues
5.3 Incremental Users & Usage
Table 5.1: Percentage of Downloaded Applications That Upsell VAS, Onstore Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014
Figure 5.2: Number of Downloaded Apps That Upsell VAS, Upsold Content, Onstore Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014
Table 5.2: Number of AR Apps That Upsell VAS, Upsold Content (m) Split by 5 Categories 2008-2014
Figure 5.3: Average Number of AR VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014
Table 5.3: Average Number of AR VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014
Figure 5.4: Total Number of AR VAS Sold (m) Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014
Table 5.4: Total Number of VAS Sold (m) Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014
5.4 Incremental Revenues of AR Applications
Table 5.5: Price per VAS, Onstore ($) Split by 5 Categories 2008-2014
Figure 5.5: AR Apps, Upselling Revenues ($) Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014
Table 5.6: AR Apps, Upselling Revenues ($) Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014

6. The Market for Mobile AR Apps - Advertising

6.1 Methodology
Figure 6.1: Bottom Up Methodology for Derivation of Mobile AR App Revenues
6.2 Ad-funded AR \"Sessions\"
6.2.1 Average Usage Levels
Figure 6.2: Average Number of AR Sessions per Service User Split by 5 Categories 2009-2014
Table 6.1: Average Number of AR Sessions per Service User Split by 5 Categories 2009-2014
Figure 6.3: Total Number of Usage Sessions of AR Apps and Services (m) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2014
Table 6.2: Total Number of Usage Sessions of AR Apps and Services (m) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2014
Table 6.3: Percentage of Sessions Resulting in Clickthroughs of Sponsored AR Links Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014
6.3 AR Ad-funded Sponsored Sessions and Response Rates
Figure 6.4: Total Number of Sponsored Sessions Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014
Table 6.4: Total Number of Sponsored Sessions Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014
Table 6.5: Average Number of Clickthroughs per Sponsored Session 2010-2014.
Figure 6.5: Total Number of AR-enabled Clickthroughs Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014
Table 6.6: Total Number of AR-enabled Clickthroughs Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014
AR Advertising Costs and Revenues
Table 6.7: CPC (Cost per Clickthrough) Rates for AR Advertising ($) Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014
Figure 6.6: Total Mobile AR-related Adspend ($) Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014
Table 6.8: Total Mobile AR-related Adspend ($) Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014

Companies Referenced

acrossair, Apple, buUuk, Carling, Digital Chocolate, Ericsson, Google, KDDI, Makayama Media, Loopt, Mobilizy, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, nVIDIA, Samsung, SPRXmobile, The Astonishing Tribe (TAT), T-Mobile, Urbanspoon, Vodafone, Yelp, Zagat