BRIC Mobile Opportunities

Overview

This insightful report brings together data and forecasts on four of the fastest growing economies in the world today: Brazil; Russia; India; and China.  For each of the four countries, the report discusses the political and commercial climate, the adoption of 3G, the uptake and value of mobile data services, and an analysis of the top 25 leading players.  The BRIC countries are also available to purchase individually.

The report provides six-year projections for the total value of the telecoms market within the BRIC grouping as well as subscriber forecasts by 2G and 3G platforms. Also included are operator revenues and ARPU forecasts for individual countries within the BRIC cluster.

Country specific historical growth is provided from 2003 onwards together with an examination of subscriber growth.  Where appropriate, an analysis of how each of the major network operators and their mobile operations cross over into fixed and broadband services is also presented.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

BRIC Overview
Table ES1: Growth of Telecoms Services Markets ($m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China) Actuals for 2003-2007 and Forecast for 2008
Figure ES1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2003-2007
Table ES2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2003-2007
Market Background
The BRIC Thesis
Mobile Markets Background
Regional Forecasts
Subscriber Growth
Table ES3: Mobile Subscriber Growth (m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China), 2008-2013
Figure ES2: Mobile Subscriber Growth (m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2008-2013
Subscriber Mix
Figure ES3: BRIC Prepaid/Contract Subscriber Growth (m), 2008-2013
Table ES4: BRIC Prepaid/Contract Subscriber Growth (m), 2008-2013
3G Adoption 12
Figure ES4: BRIC Subscriber Growth by 2G/3G Adoption, 2008-2013
Table ES5: BRIC Subscriber Growth by 2G/3G Adoption, 2008-2013
Mobile ARPU Forecasts
Figure ES5: BRIC ARPU Forecasts ($) by Voice/Data 2008-2013
Table ES6: BRIC ARPU Forecasts ($) by Voice/Data 2008-2013
Revenue Forecasts
Service Revenues
Figure ES6: Operator-Billed Service Revenue ($m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2008-2013
Table ES7: Operator-Billed Service Revenue ($m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2008-2013
Voice Revenues
Figure ES7: Operator-Billed Voice Revenues ($m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2008-2013
Table ES8: Operator-Billed Voice Revenue ($m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2008-2013
Data Revenues
Figure ES8: Operator-Billed Data Revenues ($m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2008-2013
Table ES9: Operator-Billed Data Revenue ($m) by Country (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2008-2013

1. Brazil

1.1 Market Background
Table 1.1: Brazil – Key Social, Economic and Telecoms Indicators
Table 1.2: Leading Mobile Players, Operating Subsidiaries and Regional Coverage
1.2 Market Overview
1.2.1 Prepaid & Postpaid Subscribers
Figure 1.1: Brazilian Mobile Subscriber Growth (m) Split by Prepaid and Postpaid Users 2003-2007
Table 1.3: Brazilian Mobile Subscriber Growth (m) Split by Prepaid and Postpaid Users 2003-2007
1.2.2 Subscribers by Technology
Figure 1.2: Brazilian Mobile Subscriber Base (m) By Technology (GSM, CDMA, TDMA, iDEN, AMPS) 2003-2007
Table 1.4: Brazilian Mobile Subscriber Base (m), By Technology (GSM, CDMA, TDMA, iDEN, AMPS) 2003-2007
1.2.3 Operator ARPUs & Revenues
Figure 1.3: Brazilian Mobile Market, Operator Market Share (%) 2007
Table 1.5: Brazilian Mobile Market, Operator Market Share (%) and Subscribers (m) 2007
Table 1.6: Brazilian Mobile ARPUs by Operator 2006-2007
Table 1.7: Brazilian Operator-Billed Total and Non Voice Revenue and ARPU, 2006-2007
1.2.4 Mergers & Acquisitions
1.2.5 3G Licensing
Table 1.8: Brazilian 3G Licence Awards by Region, Licensee and Bid
Table 1.9: Brazilian 3G Licence Awards, by Operator, Area and Bid
1.2.6 Mobile WiMAX
1.3 Market Forecasts
1.3.1 Subscribers
Table 1.10: Brazilian Mobile Subscribers: Total Subscribers (m) and Penetration (%) 2008-2013
Table 1.11: Brazilian Prepaid & Postpaid Subscribers (m and %) 2008-2013
Table 1.12: Brazilian Total 3G Subscribers (m) & as Percentage of Total User Base 2008-2013
1.3.2 Operator Revenues & ARPU
Table 1.13: Brazilian Operator Billed Mobile Revenues ($m) & Non-Voice Revenues ($m) 2008-2013
Table 1.14 Brazilian Operator Billed ARPU ($) & Non-Voice ARPU ($) 2008-2013
1.4 Operator Profiles
1.4.1 VIVO
1.4.2 TIM Brasil
1.4.3 Claro Digital
1.4.4 Brasil Telecom
1.4.5 Oi/Telemar
1.4.6 CTBC Celular
1.4.7 Nextel Brazil
1.5 Regulation
1.5.1 Overview
1.5.2 Legislation
1.5.3 Issues Affecting Mobile Operators
i. Significant Market Power
ii. Number Portability

2. Russia

2.1 Market Background
Table 2.1: Russia – Key Social, Economic and Telecoms Indicators
Table 2.2: Leading Mobile Operators and their Ownership
2.2 Market Overview
2.2.1 Subscriber Growth Trends
Figure 2.1: Russian Mobile Subscriber Growth (m) 2003-2007
Figure 2.2: Russian Mobile Subscriber Growth (m) Split by Prepaid and Postpaid Users, 2003-2007
2.2.2 Operator Market Shares
Table 2.3: Russian Mobile Market, Operator Market Share (%) and Subscribers (m) December 2007
Figure 2.3: Russian Mobile Market, Operator Share (%) December 2007
2.2.3 Operator ARPUs & Revenues
Table 2.4: Russian Mobile ARPUs by Operator 2006-2007
Table 2.5: Russian Operator Billed Revenue (Total & Non-Voice) and ARPU 2006-2007
2.2.4 Market Value, 2003-2007
Table 2.6: Growth Of Russian Telecoms Services Market Revenues, 2003-2007
Figure 2.4: Russian Telecoms Revenues Breakdown 2007
2.2.5 Mergers & Acquisitions
2.2.6 3G Licensing
2.2.7 Mobile WiMAX
2.3 Market Forecasts
2.3.1 Subscribers
Table 2.7: Russian Mobile Subscribers: Total Subscribers (m) and Penetration (%) 2008-2013
Table 2.8: Russian Prepaid & Postpaid Subscribers (m and %) 2008-2013 52
Table 2.9: Russian Total 3G Subscribers (m) & as Percentage of Total User Base 2008-2013
2.3.2 Operator Revenues & ARPU
Table 2.10: Russian Operator Billed Mobile Revenues ($m) & Non-Voice Revenues ($m) 2008-2013
Table 2.11: Russian Operator Billed ARPU ($) & Non-Voice ARPU ($) 2008-2013
2.4 Operator Profiles
2.4.1 Mobile TeleSystems
2.4.2 Vimpel Communications (BeeLine)
2.4.3 MegaFon
2.4.4 Tele2 Russia
2.4.5 Svyazinvest Group
2.4.6 SMARTS Group
2.4.7 SkyLink Group
2.5 Regulation

3. India

3.1 Market Background
Table 3.1: India – Key Social, Economic and Telecoms Indicators
Table 3.2: Leading Mobile Operators and their Owners
3.2 Market Overview
3.2.1 Subscribers
Figure 3.1: Indian Mobile Subscriber Growth (m), 2003-2007
Table 3.3: Indian Mobile Subscriber Growth (m) 2003-2007
3.2.2 Operator Market Share
Figure 3.2: Indian Market Share (%) by Operator, 2003-2007
Figure 3.3: Indian Mobile Market Share (%) by Operator, 2007
Table 3.4: Indian Mobile Market, Subscribers (m) and Operator Market Share (%) December 2007
3.2.3 Operator ARPUs & Revenues
Figure 3.4: Indian Operator-Billed Revenue Growth (INR m), Split by Voice, P2P Messaging and Non P2P Messaging Data, 2003-2007
Table 3.5: India Operator-Billed Revenue (Total & Non-Voice INR bn) and ARPU (Total & Non-Voice) (INR) 2006-2007
3.2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions
3.2.5 Network Development
3.2.6 3G Licensing
3.2.7 Mobile WiMAX
3.3 Market Forecasts
3.3.1 Subscribers
Table 3.6: Indian Mobile Subscribers: Total Subscribers (m) & Penetration (%) 2008-2013
Table 3.7: Indian Prepaid & Postpaid Subscribers (m and %) 2008-2013
Table 3.8: Indian Total 3G Subscribers (m) & as Percentage of Total User Base 2008-2013
3.3.2 Operator Revenues & ARPU
Table 3.9: Indian Operator Billed Mobile Revenues ($m) Split by Total Service Revenues & Non-Voice Revenues 2008-2013
Table 3.10: Indian Operator Billed ARPU ($) Split by Total ARPU & Non-Voice ARPU 2008-2013
3.4 Operator Profiles
3.4.1 Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)
3.4.2 Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL)
3.4.3 Bharti Airtel
3.4.4 Reliance Communications
3.4.5 Vodafone Essar
3.4.6 Idea Cellular
3.4.7 Spice Communications
3.4.8 Aircel
3.4.9 Tata Teleservices
3.5 Regulation
3.5.1 Overview
3.5.2 Legislation
3.5.3 Issues Affecting Mobile Operators
i. MVNOs
ii. New 2G Licensees

4. China

4.1 Market Background
Table 4.1: China – Key Social, Economic and Telecoms Indicators
Table 4.2: Leading Mobile Operators and their Ownership
4.2 Market Overview
4.2.1 Subscriber Growth Trends
Figure 4.1: Chinese Mobile Subscriber Growth (m) Split by Prepaid and Postpaid Users 2003-07
Table 4.3: Chinese Mobile Subscriber Growth (m) Split by Prepaid and Postpaid Users 2003-2007
4.2.2 Subscribers By Technology
Table 4.4: Chinese Mobile Subscriber Base (m), By Technology (GSM and CDMA) 2003-2007
Figure 4.2: Chinese Mobile Subscriber Base (m), By Technology (GSM and CDMA) 2003-2007
4.2.3. Operator Market Shares
Figure 4.3: Chinese Mobile Market, Operator Market Shares (%), December 2007
4.2.4 Operator ARPUs & Revenues
Table 4.5: Chinese Mobile ARPUs by Operator 2006-2007
Table 4.6: Chinese Operator Billed Revenue (Total & Non-Voice) and ARPU 2006-2007
4.2.5 Market Value, 2003-2007
Table 4.7: Growth Of Chinese Telecoms Services Market Revenues, 2003-2007
4.2.6 Mobile Handset Sales and Production
4.2.7 Industry Restructuring
4.2.8 3G Licensing
4.2.9 Mobile WiMAX
4.3 Market Forecasts
4.3.1 Subscribers
Table 4.8: Chinese Mobile Subscribers: Total Subscribers (m) and Penetration (%) 2008-2013
Table 4.9: Chinese Prepaid & Postpaid Subscribers (m and %) 2008-2013 99
Table 4.10: Chinese Total 3G Subscribers (m) & as Percentage of Total User Base 2008-2013
4.3.2 Operator Revenues & ARPU

Companies Referenced

Aircel, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL), Bharti Airtel, Brasil Telecom, China Mobile, China Netcom, China Telecom, China TieTong, China Unicom, Claro Digital, CTBC Celular, Idea Cellular, Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL), MegaFon, Mobile TeleSystems, Nextel Brazil, Oi/Telemar, Reliance Communications, SkyLink Group, SMARTS Group, Spice Communications, Svyazinvest Group, Tata Teleservices, Tele2 Russia, TIM Brasil, Vimpel Communications (BeeLine), VIVO, Vodafone Essar