Mobile Entertainment Strategies

Overview

• Sector-by-sector assessment
• Revenue breakdown by product and region
• Challenges across the value chain

The highly anticipated 7^th edition of this industry-leading report provides an overview of the rapidly expanding mobile entertainment market, highlighting the key sectors for service growth and the new business models which are reshaping the way that content is monetised.

This report covers

Challenges Across The Value Chain. This report explores the critical issues facing operators, app storefronts and content providers, including:

•         How can operators avoid the bitpipe scenario?

•         The emergence of the shelf-in-store

•         The challenge of discovery and differentiation

•         The future of Java

The report also explores the key drivers behind the continuing growth in this space, and considers the implications that a transition to browser-based apps might have on the mobile entertainment ecosystem. This analysis is supported by interviews with senior executives from players across the mobile ecosystem, including Nokia, Bango, Poynt, inneractive and Opera.

Market forecasts. This report brings together in a single volume the key five-year revenue forecasts from across Juniper’s latest sector-specific reports:

•                     Mobile TV

•                     Gambling

•                     Games

•                     Social Media

•                     Adult

It also includes previously unpublished forecasts on the Music and Infotainment sectors. For the first time, these forecasts include revenues generated by tablets in addition to mobile handsets.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

 

Mobile Entertainment Market Development

1.1 Introduction 15
Figure 1.1 Mobile Entertainment Services: Time to Deployment 16
1.2 Types of Mobile Entertainment Service 16
1.2.1 Mobile Gambling 16
1.2.2 Mobile Adult Content 17
1.2.3 Mobile Games 18
1.2.4 Mobile Music 19
1.2.5 Mobile TV 19
1.2.6 Mobile Social Media 20
1.2.7 Mobile Infotainment 21
Table 1.1: Scope of Sport Leisure and Information Content and Services 22

Mobile Entertainment Market Forecasts

2.1 Forecast Definitions & Methodology 23
2.1.1 Forecast Methodology 24
Figure: 2.1: Forecast Methodology 24
2.2 The Global Market for Mobile Entertainment 25
2.2.1 Global Market Product Breakdown 25
Figure 2.2: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 25
Table 2.1: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 26
Figure 2.3: Total Revenues (%) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011 & 2016 26
2.2.2 Global Market Regional Breakdown 26
Figure 2.4 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 27
Table 2.2: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 27
Figure 2.5: Total Revenues (%) from Mobile Entertainment Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 & 2016 28
2.3 Mobile Entertainment Product Sector Forecasts 28
2.3.1 Mobile Gambling 28
i. Quantifying Mobile Gambling: Wagers & Gross Win 28
ii. Methodology 29
iii. Total Mobile Gambling Wagers 29
Figure 2.6: Total Wager ($m) on Mobile Gambling Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 30
Table 2.3: Total Wager ($m) on Mobile Gambling Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 30
Figure 2.7: Total Gross Win ($m) on Mobile Gambling Services Split By 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 31
Table 2.4: Total Gross Win ($m) on Mobile Gambling Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 31
2.3.2 Mobile Adult Content 31
Figure 2.8: Total Revenues from Adult Mobile Services ($m) Split By 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 32
Table 2.5: Total Revenues from Adult Mobile Services ($m) Split By 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 33
2.3.3 Mobile Games 33
Figure 2.9: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games Split By 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 33
Table 2.6: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 34
2.3.4 Mobile Music 34
Figure 2.10: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 35
Table 2.7: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 35
2.3.5 Mobile Social Media 35
Figure 2.11: Total End-User Revenues ($m) for Social Media Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 36
Table 2.8: Total End-User Revenues ($m) for Social Media Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 36
2.3.6 Mobile TV 37
Table 2.9: Mobile TV – Key Disruptive Factors 37
i. The Outlook for Mobile Broadcast TV Services 38
ii. The Outlook for Mobile Streamed TV Services 38
iii. The Market for Mobile TV Services 39
Figure 2.12: Mobile TV Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 39
Table 2.10: Mobile TV Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 39
2.3.7 Mobile Infotainment 40
Figure 2.13: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 – 2016 40
Table 2.11: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 40
2.4 Mobile Entertainment Regional Forecasts 41
2.4.1 North America 41
Figure 2.14: North American Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Services Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 42
Table 2.12: North American Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Services Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 42
2.4.2 Latin America 43
Figure 2.15: Latin American Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 43
Table 2.13: Latin American Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 44
2.4.3 Western Europe 44
Figure 2.16: Western European Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 44
Table 2.14: Western European Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 45
2.4.4 Central & Eastern Europe 45
Figure 2.17: Central & Eastern European Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 45
Table 2.15 Central & Eastern European Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 46
2.4.5 Far East & China 46
Figure 2.18: Far East & China Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 47
Table 2.16: Far East & China Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 47
2.4.6 Indian Subcontinent 48
Figure 2.19: Indian Sub Continent Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 48
Table 2.17: Indian Sub Continent Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 48
2.4.7 Rest of Asia Pacific 49
Figure 2.20: Rest of Asia Pacific Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 49
Table 2.18: Rest of Asia Pacific Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 49
2.4.8 Africa & Middle East 50
Figure 2.21: Africa & Middle East Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 50
Table 2.19: Africa & Middle East Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016 51

Monetising Mobile Entertainment

3.1 The Opportunity for Mobile Entertainment 53
3.1.1 Mobile Ubiquity 53
3.1.2 The Consumer Smartphone Boom & the Rise of the Storefront 54
3.1.3 Mobile Internet Adoption is Increasing 54
Figure 3.1: Global Mobile Internet Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 55
3.1.4 The Rise of M-Commerce/M-Banking 55
Figure 3.2: Ocado on the Go Screenshots 55
Figure 3.3: The mPayment Revolution: Global mPayment Transactions ($bn), 2008-2011 56
3.1.5 The Rise of the Tablet 56
Figure 3.4 Tablet Shipments (m), iPad/Other, 2009-2011 57
3.2 Mobile Content Business Models 57
Figure 3.5: Mobile App Business Models 58
3.2.1 Pay Per Download 58
i. Pricing the Content 58
3.2.2 Free to Download 59
3.2.3 Upselling Content – The Freemium Approach 59
i. The Growth of In-App Billing 60
Table 3.1: Top Grossing US iPhone Apps, 2010 60
ii. In-App Billing and Social Gaming 61
3.2.4 The Mobile Value-Add 61
3.2.5 The Challenges of Content Monetisation – Which Business Model? 61
3.3 The Challenges of Content Billing 62
3.3.1 Beyond Billing - Maximising Monetisation Opportunities Through Intelligent Billing 62
3.4 Advertising in Apps 63
3.5 Mobile Entertainment in a Post App-Store World 64
3.5.1 HTML5 & D2C: the Implications of the Browser-based Approach 64
i. Case Study: FT 66
ii. Constraints of the Browser-based Approach 66
a. Discoverability 66
b. Browser-Based Services Require Connectivity 66
Table 3.2: Selected US/UK Data Outages 2010-2011 67
c. Browser-Based Applications Can Be Slow 68
d. HTML5 is a work in progress 68
e. Web-based Apps can be expensive for end-users 68
3.5.2 The Rise of the Hybrid – Opportunities for Thin Clients 68

Challenges Across Entertainment Value Chain

4.1 Challenges for MNOs 71
Figure 4.1: MNO Strategic Options in an App-Centric World 72
4.1.1 The Bitpipe Scenario 72
4.1.2 New Business Models: The Data/Content Bundle 73
i. Case Study: Verizon Wireless 74
4.1.3 New Business Models: Leveraging the Billing Relationship 74
4.1.4 New Business Models: The Shelf-in-Store 74
i. Case Study: Vodafone AppSelect 75
ii. Prospects for the Shelf-in-Store Model 76
4.2 Challenges For Storefront Vendors 77
4.2.1 Discovery and Differentiation 77
Figure 4.2: The Vicious Circle of the Addressable User Base 78
i. A Third Party Solution? 78
4.2.2 Repositioning the Storefront from B2C to B2B: Appia 79
4.3 Challenges for Content Providers 79
4.3.1 Discovery and Differentiation 79
4.4 New Opportunities, New Challenges: App Stores in Developing Markets 80
4.4.1 Case Study: Ovi Store 81
4.4.2 The Future of Java? 82

Mobile Ticketing for Entertainment & Events

 

 

5.1 Introduction 85
5.1.1 Entertainment Events Mobile Ticketing Market Development 86
i. Intensive Ticket Validation Demands 86
ii. Handheld Reader Advantage 86
iii. Regional Differences 86
iv. End-to-End Ticketing Rare 86
v. Case Study: Ministry of Sound 87
Figure 5.1: Ministry of Sound Mobile App 87
5.2 Market Forecast 87
5.2.1 Entertainment Ticketing Landscape 87
5.2.2 Entertainment & Events Mobile Ticketing Transaction Value 88
Figure 5.2: Total Entertainment & Events Mobile Ticketing Transaction Value ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 89
Table 5.1: Total Entertainment & Events Mobile Ticketing Transaction Value ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 89
Table 5.2: Total Entertainment & Events Mobile Ticketing Transaction Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015 90

 

 

 

 

7.1 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Gambling....................................................................................................... 102

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Paddy Power.............................................................................................................................................................. 102

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.2 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Adult Services............................................................................................... 102

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Manwin........................................................................................................................................................................ 102

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.3 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Games............................................................................................................ 102

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EA Mobile................................................................................................................................................................... 102

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.4 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Dating............................................................................................................. 103

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Match.com.................................................................................................................................................................. 103

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.5 Future Mobile Award for Mobile TV................................................................................................................... 103

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AT&T........................................................................................................................................................................... 103

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.6 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Advertising.................................................................................................... 103

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Velti.............................................................................................................................................................................. 103

The Regulation of Mobile Entertainment

6.1 Introduction 91
6.2 Regulatory Environments 91
6.2.1 International Privacy Regulation 92
i. Directive 95/46/EC: Processing Personal Data and the Protection of Privacy 92
ii. The E-Commerce Sector Data Protection Directive (2002/58/EC) 92
iii. The Data Retention Directive (2006/24/EC) 93
iv. The Distance Selling Directive (97/7/EC) 93
v. The E-money Directive (2009/110/EC) 93
6.2.2 Mobile Content Regulation 94
i. Pan-European Activities 94
a. European Framework on Safer Mobile use by Younger Teenagers and Children 94
Table 6.1: Implementation of European Framework for Safer Mobile Use by Younger Teenagers and Children by Country 2010 95
ii. National Legislation Pertaining to Mobile Services 96
a. Case Study: Australian Communication and Media Authority (ACMA) 96
b. Case Study: PhonepayPlus (UK) 97
iii. National Self-Regulation 97
a. Case Study: UK 97
b. Case Study: US 98
c. Case Study: South Africa 99

Future Mobile Awards

Table 7.1: Future Mobile Award Winners – 2012 102
7.1 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Gambling 102
Paddy Power 102
7.2 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Adult Services 102
Manwin 102
7.3 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Games 102
EA Mobile 102
7.4 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Dating 103
Match.com 103
7.5 Future Mobile Award for Mobile TV 103
AT&T 103
7.6 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Advertising 103
Velti 103

 

Companies Referenced

3UK; 3 Ireland; 3 Italia; 3 UK; Amazon; Apple; Argos; Assanka; Betfair; Bharti Airtel; Bouygues Telecom; BskyB; Capybara Games; China Telecom; Claro; Comcast; Communications Alliance Organisation; Cosmote; Debitel; Deutsche Telekom; DoCoMo; eBay; E-Plus; Facebook; Fandango; Federation of European Direct & Interactive Marketing; Flirtomatic; Foursquare; Getjar; GO Mobile; Google; GQ Magazine; GREE; H13G Denmark; Handango; HBO; Heroku; Hootsuite; HP; HTC; Hutchinson 3G Europe; Japan Racing Association; KDDI; LG; M6 Mobile; Majic Jungle Software; Match.com; Meteor; Microsoft; Mixi; Mobage; Mobilcom Communciationstechnik ; Mobile Entertainment Forum; Mobilfunk; Mobilkom austria AG; Netscape; NTT; O2 Germany; O2 UK; Ocado; One GmbH; Orange; Orange; Pannon; PayPal; Playforge; Qualcomm; Quora; Reddit; Regal Cinemas; RIM; Royal KPN; Safaricom; Samsung; SFR; Sky; Slingbox; Softbank Mobile; Sonaecom; Sonofon; Sprint; Talkline; TDC; Telcel; Telecom; Telecom Italia; Telefonica; Telefonica Moviles; Telenor; Telia Danmark; TeliaSonera; Tencent; Tesco; The Windows Phone Marketplace; TIM; Time Warner; TiVo; TMN; T-Mobile; T-Mobile Austria GmbH; T-Mobile Deutschland; T-Mobile USA; Twist Mobile; Twitter; Universal Mobile; Verizon Wireless; Vimeo; Virgin Media; Vodacom; Vodafone D2; Vodafone UK; VODone; WIND; Yahoo; Yoigo; Zynga

Extra Info

‡ 8 key regions includes:

North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.