The Distillery: Google's HTTP Shift Disrupts Carrier Billing & Mastercard Bets $1.8bn on Stablecoins

March 2026

Fintech & Payments

Juniper Research

Analyst House

In this edition:

• Google’s move to block unencrypted HTTP in Google Chrome is forcing a rethink of direct carrier billing authentication.
• Mastercard’s $1.8 billion acquisition of BVNK signals a shift towards owning stablecoin settlement infrastructure.
• Why the Future Homes Standard just accelerated the shift to electrified heating and decentralised energy in UK new builds.
• Our latest insights on direct carrier billing, mobile money, and cross-border payments, and our key takeaways from MPE 2026.

TELECOMS & CONNECTIVITY

Google to End Unencrypted HTTP Support in Chrome in October

Google is set to block unencrypted HTTP traffic in Chrome from April 2026, with a full roll-out by October 2026 in Chrome 154. This creates a direct challenge for the direct carrier billing (DCB) market, which has relied on header enrichment to pass mobile numbers into payment flows.

Header enrichment enables mobile network operators and payment service providers (PSPs) to automatically identify users over cellular networks; allowing transactions to be authenticated without manual input. This functionality will no longer be supported in Chrome once unencrypted HTTP is blocked; forcing users to complete additional verification steps.

Distilled...

🟣 Removing HTTP header enrichment introduces additional verification steps into DCB transactions in Chrome over cellular networks; creating friction that risks lower conversion rates. That said, the majority of DCB traffic takes place over Wi-Fi or outside Chrome, and so a significant portion of transactions won't be affected.

🟣 Our latest figures predict global spend via DCB will reach $87 billion by 2030, with growth increasingly driven by use cases beyond digital content; including physical goods and ticketing. Chrome’s move to HTTPS is unlikely to materially impact this trajectory, given the time that operators and payment service providers have to engineer a workaround.

🟣 CAMARA number verification would allow operators and PSPs to confirm number ownership without user input, thereby restoring low-friction authentication in DCB flows. It also opens up verification over Wi-Fi and more flexible transaction flows; extending DCB beyond its current limitations and enabling its use across a wider range of payment scenarios.

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MORE TELECOMS INSIGHTS

 📱 Direct Carrier Billing to Grow by $35 Billion Globally Over the Next Four Years [New Research]

🌍 Direct Carrier Billing: Unlocking Emerging Revenue Streams for Operators [Whitepaper]

FINTECH & PAYMENTS

Mastercard to Acquire Stablecoin Infrastructure Provider BVNK

Mastercard has announced an agreement to acquire BVNK, a London-based stablecoin infrastructure provider, in a deal valued at up to $1.8 billion. This transaction includes approximately $300 million in performance contingent payments; making it Mastercard’s largest crypto-related acquisition to date.

BVNK provides infrastructure that connects traditional fiat payment systems with blockchain settlement; enabling near-instant cross-border payments across more than 130 countries. Through the acquisition, Mastercard aims to accelerate the use of stablecoins and tokenised deposits for applications including cross-border remittances, payouts, and both P2P and B2B payments.

Distilled…

🟣 Mastercard’s move reflects a growing urgency among incumbent payment networks to secure core stablecoin infrastructure, rather than relying on external partners. This contrasts with the more partnership-led approach that Visa has taken, and signals Mastercard’s intent to position itself as the settlement layer for stablecoin activity.

🟣 Mastercard will gain crucial licences and distribution channels through the acquisition of BVNK; enhancing its ability to offer regulated stablecoin services globally. These approvals usually take years to acquire, but this acquisition will allow Mastercard to obtain licences immediately; allowing them to move into new regions much faster than any competitor building organically. Mastercard’s development of the Multi-Token Network — a private blockchain for settling tokenised assets — also provides a clear integration point for BVNK’s infrastructure; enabling it to embed stablecoin capabilities directly into its existing settlement architecture.

🟣 Favourable regulatory tailwinds such as the GENIUS Act, which clarified the US stablecoin landscape, gave Mastercard the confidence to commit $1.8 billion to this deal. Regulatory clarity is a prerequisite for institutional adoption. Without it, institutions cannot compliantly hold, move, or settle stablecoins at scale. Against this backdrop, Mastercard is positioning itself as the compliant infrastructure layer for institutional stablecoin activity; elevating the strategic importance of BVNK’s licensed payment rails as frameworks mature.

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MORE PAYMENTS INSIGHTS

📱 Sophisticated Microfinance Services Spend to Surpass $22 Billion By 2030 [New Research]

🔎 How MPE 2026 Delivered a European Reality Check on Payments Innovation [Blog]

🌍 The Next Steps for Mobile Money – Interoperability and Openness [Whitepaper]

💸 Circle, Fireblocks, SWIFT and the Race to Rewire Cross-border Payments [Blog]

SUSTAINABILITY & SMART CITIES

UK Mandates Heat Pumps & Rooftop Solar for New Homes

The UK government has confirmed that its long-awaited Future Homes Standard will come into force in 2028; requiring all new homes in England to be built without gas boilers and to include rooftop solar as standard.

In practice, this locks in heat pumps or low-carbon heat networks as the default for new builds, while embedding on-site renewable generation directly into the housing pipeline. It marks a clear shift away from gas in new housing — and raises immediate strategic questions for developers, local authorities, grid operators, and investors around cost, deliverability, and system readiness.

Distilled...

🟣 By focusing on new builds, the policy gradually shifts the overall housing stock towards low-carbon homes. This avoids the political friction of retrofits, though also slows emissions impact as existing homes remain unchanged. It also places short-term cost and delivery risk on developers and supply chains by leaning on regulation rather than incentives; effectively betting that scale will bring costs down over time.

🟣 Developers warn solar requirements could squeeze smaller builders or constrained sites where panel yield is limited. If build costs rise without offsetting reductions, projects may be delayed, scaled back, or dropped altogether; putting housing targets at risk. The policy also assumes sufficient capacity across heat pumps, installers, and grid infrastructure. If these lag, bottlenecks, higher costs, and regional disparities could emerge.

🟣 Framing the Future Homes Standard around energy security and lower bills recasts decarbonisation as protection against future fossil fuel shocks. Opposition from rival political parties highlights a broader divide over whether to prioritise electrified, renewable infrastructure now or extend fossil supply to limit near-term costs. In practice, the policy could accelerate grid decentralisation; forcing operators and regulators to update tariffs, flexibility markets, and local balancing to avoid inefficiencies.

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